Long range weather forecasts

Our extended-range forecasts provide an overview of potential weather conditions up to 46 days ahead, focussing mainly on average conditions week by week and how different they are from a long-term model-based climatology.

Our long-range seasonal forecasts provide information about atmospheric and oceanic conditions up to seven months into the future. They are produced every month with a member ensemble at a horizontal resolution of around 36 km. Annual forecasts are produced with the same system every three months and extend 13 months into the future. Long-range charts include differences or anomalies from a long-term model-based climatology and probabilities of above normal, normal or below normal conditions. Find out more about how our long-range forecasts are produced. Like the medium- and extended-range forecasts, our long-range forecasts are produced using the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System IFS which uses an Earth system model to represent interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land and other Earth-system components. Long-term predictions rely on aspects of Earth system variability which have long timescales months to years and which are, to a certain extent, predictable.

Long range weather forecasts

Early rain across the south clearing with increasing sunny spells on Wednesday after any fog patches in central areas lift. Later in the day cloud and rain approach the far northwest before pushing across the UK on Thursday. This sets the scene for the following days as spells of rain are expected across all areas at times between brief settled spells, wettest overall in the west and northwest, where it will also sometimes be windy. Late in the period more settled conditions develop in the east as rain occasionally runs across western areas in a more southerly wind direction. Temperatures are most likely to be around or a little above average, though some short-lived colder interludes remain likely. Increasing likelihood that a more blocked weather pattern will develop with more settled conditions most likely affecting the east with winds favouring a more south or south-westerly direction mid-March, bringing most rainfall across western areas and largely drier to the east. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above normal overall, with occasional night frosts, but values will fluctuate as weather systems come and go. Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts.

Temperatures will decrease slightly to around average nationwide. They are produced every month with a member ensemble at a horizontal resolution of around 36 km.

Aside from chilly conditions this weekend and early next week, there should be an extended period of mild weather. It will be changeable through the coming week with the most disturbed weather in the second half, and there will be some wintriness over high ground, mainly in northern areas. Through the first half of March more settled conditions should develop, especially during the second week, as high pressure makes more of an appearance. Mid-March onwards is very uncertain but there is a chance of some colder weather developing. With weak high pressure moving across, the weekend should have just a few showers dotted around, some wintry over higher ground as chillier air moves in. Overnight fog patches are possible, with temperatures dropping near or just below average.

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Long range weather forecasts

These include day outlooks, monthly outlooks, and seasonal outlooks. Unlike regular "zone forecasts" issued by a local National Weather Service office, the climatological outlooks provide probability forecasts for both temperature and precipitation, divided into tercile groups: below normal, near normal, and above normal. For information about how to read the latest 8 to 14 day outlooks, for example, click here. Latest Day Precipitation Outlook. Latest Day Temperature Outlook. Latest 1-Month Precipitation Outlook. Latest 1-Month Temperature Outlook.

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Disclaimer Information Quality Help Glossary. Through the second half of the week there will be a chance of some drier weather as high pressure tries to build across from the east, potentially holding frontal systems out in the Atlantic. This could allow some chillier air to move across northern Europe during the second half of the month, with temperatures falling closer to the March average. For example, charts show if the average conditions over a week are predicted to be colder or warmer than normal for that time of year. BBC Weather. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. Please Contact Us. Current Hazards. Temperatures will decrease slightly to around average nationwide. Follow us on YouTube. By the end of the month there could be a risk of colder conditions developing if this pattern takes more of a hold, but that is very uncertain and can only be called a risk at this point.

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Our long range forecast which is updated on a daily basis provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, i. It should be drier than average but occasional showers are likely, some of which could be wintry if this pattern develops. Variations in the stratosphere may also play a role. April and May however are expected to be above average and trend between 0. Unlike regular "zone forecasts" issued by a local National Weather Service office, the climatological outlooks provide probability forecasts for both temperature and precipitation, divided into tercile groups: below normal, near normal, and above normal. Follow us on Twitter. For example, charts show if the average conditions over a week are predicted to be colder or warmer than normal for that time of year. About BBC Weather. The extended range forecast, which includes the monthly and seasonal forecasts, can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the months ahead. However, they should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the day forecast. Latest 1-Month Temperature Outlook.