Electoral calculus

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Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors and local demographics. The site was developed by Martin Baxter, [1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Change UK was later removed from the headline prediction ahead of the general election as their poll scores were not statistically significant. The site is based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography, [1] which can be used to calculate the uniform national swing.

Electoral calculus

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Our current poll-of-polls predicts what would happen if there were a general election tomorrow. Electoral Calculus has launched a new data service for local parties and campaigners. For any seat, you can see detailed predictions and political attitudes at every local neighbourhood in the seat, at affordable cost. Analysis of recent polling suggests the Lib Dems will do well in their stronghold seats, but Labour has overtaken them in many seats where they came second at the last election. Analysis of forty years of by-election results shows that most by-election gains are overturned at the next general election. The Conservatives would win less than one hundred seats, and the Liberal Democrats are fighting the SNP for third place. The public want euthanasia legalised and house prices lowered, and don't think net zero will happen by New local council wards are now available for forty-nine councils across England whose ward boundaries have been changed in advance of the local elections in May Using advanced mathematical regression techniques, coupled with professional but low-cost polling, Electoral Calculus made the most accurate final pre-election forecast in , outperforming all the competition.

Electoral calculus

Poll History. Current state of party support in Scotland, along with a record of Scottish opinion polls since Dec Current state of party support in Northern Ireland, along with a record of NI opinion polls since Dec Introductory article to the science of opinion polls, describing the importance of sample size and quotas. Historical record of polls published in the run-up to recent general elections. Pick a year from:.

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The founder of Electoral Calculus, Martin Baxter, and its sole employee, Marwan Riach, have regularly appeared on UK and international media to offer polling expertise to their audience. Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. Cookies on Companies House services We use some essential cookies to make our services work. Electoral Calculus. Companies House does not verify the accuracy of the information filed link opens a new window. The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model , which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model. Toggle limited content width. Retrieved 6 February To accept or reject analytics cookies, turn on JavaScript in your browser settings and reload this page. Retrieved 17 October Retrieved 24 May Use this service to order a signed certificate of incorporation, which can include key details about the company and a statement of good standing. To use the service, you'll need: to choose the company information you want to be included on the certificate the address you want the certificate to be delivered to UK or international a credit or debit card for payment. The Independent.

Get the data on GitHub. The U. In the last year, state legislatures have passed numerous new election laws , abortion restrictions , anti-transgender laws and more.

But it's too late for Labour". The site is based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography, [1] which can be used to calculate the uniform national swing. Accept analytics cookies Reject analytics cookies View cookies. Politics in Spires. We'd also like to use analytics cookies so we can understand how you use our services and to make improvements. Keele University. You've accepted analytics cookies. Retrieved 24 May This uses national swings in a proportional manner to predict local effects. Tell us what you think of this service link opens a new window Is there anything wrong with this page? Last accounts made up to 31 May